Weekly Updates

In Australia, wages growth in Q3 slowed more than expected. Employment growth missed expectations in October, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. NAB business conditions remained close to average in October, but business confidence rebounded. Westpac consumer sentiment saw another strong increase in November.

In the US, Republican Donald Trump secured victory in the presidential election, and the Republican party won both houses of the US Congress. The FOMC cut the fed funds rate by 25bps, as expected, and did not rule out another cut in December. The ISM services PMI for October suggested the fastest expansion since mid-2022 but was partly supported by longer delivery times caused by hurricanes.

In Australia, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation temporarily returned to the target band, but trimmed mean inflation remained somewhat above it. Retail sales growth slowed in September but posted a solid gain in volume terms in Q3. New home loans ebbed in September, but dwelling approvals picked up. CoreLogic home price growth slowed in October.

In Australia, the Judo Bank flash PMI for October pointed to near-stagnant conditions in services and further contraction in manufacturing. Abroad, S&P Global PMIs pointed to ongoing expansion in the US, slight contraction in the euro area and renewed contraction in Japan. China saw a 25bps reduction in benchmark loan prime rates.

In Australia, employment saw another outsized increase in September, while the unemployment rate was steady at a downwardly revised 4.1%. Abroad, US retail sales growth surprised to the upside, but industrial production fell more than expected.

In Australia, RBA Board minutes suggested that, while a decision to increase the cash rate at the meeting was not discussed, the members still considered the case for a prolonged period of restrictive, or even tighter, monetary conditions going forward. Abroad, the US CPI data surprised to the upside.