Weekly Updates

In Australia, new home loans saw a broad-based decline in May. NAB business conditions deteriorated further in June, but business confidence improved. Westpac consumer confidence dropped in July. Payroll jobs saw only a small uptick over the month to 15 June. Abroad, US CPI unexpectedly fell in June. Chinese trade surplus widened, as imports saw renewed decline while exports growth accelerated.

In Australia, RBA minutes confirmed that a hike was discussed in June meeting. Retail trade and dwelling approvals exceeded expectations in May, while trade surplus narrowed. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggested that the annual rate of consumer price inflation could have picked up in June. ANZ-Indeed job ads fell further in June.

In Australia, the monthly CPI indicator suggested that annual consumer price inflation rose to 4.0% in May. Private sector credit growth remained steady in May. Westpac consumer confidence picked up in June, but remained depressed. Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations also rose in June, yet are well off their mid-2022 highs. Job vacancies declined between February and May.

In Australia, the RBA Board left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% this week, but a rate hike was discussed at the meeting. The Judo Bank flash PMI suggested business activity saw only a marginal increase in June. Abroad, US retail sales growth disappointed in May, but industrial production rose more than expected.

Abroad, the FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged this week, but revised its rate projections upwards, with only one rate cut now expected in 2024. The US inflation figures for May surprised to the downside. In Australia, employment saw another solid increase in May, while the unemployment rate fell back to 4.0%.

In Australia, GDP rose by 0.1% in Q1, but fell further in per capita terms. The current account balance turned negative in Q1, dragged down by a lower trade surplus among others, which was followed by a rebound in the goods trade surplus in April. New home loans picked up more than expected in April. Abroad, the ECB and Bank of Canada became the first G7 central banks to cut rates this week.